Not financial advice — a model to react to, not a plan. Tests the WHOLE portfolio (current net worth) against lifestyle spending (guaranteed income + portfolio draw combined) — same Layer 1 figure as the Financial Summary page. Proceeds from a home sale are NOT included here — see the separate Downsize Model page for that, deliberately kept as its own isolated pot.
At 90% confidence over 25 years, our portfolio could sustainably support about $13,590/mo in total household spending — more than the $12,523/mo actually being spent today, suggesting headroom of roughly $1,067/mo. Today's actual spending succeeds in 96% of simulated paths over 25 years.
Monte Carlo, 3,000 trials, real terms (already inflation-adjusted — expected return 5%/yr, volatility 12%/yr). General inflation is assumed at 3.0%/yr. Lifestyle spending is assumed to track general inflation exactly (flat in real terms). Guaranteed income (Social Security + pensions) is assumed to track general inflation exactly (flat in real terms). Ruin is permanent — once a path hits zero it stays there. Each cell is our largest monthly total spending that still succeeds in at least that fraction of the 1,000 simulated paths; the last column is the success probability of TODAY'S actual spending level specifically. 50 years stands in for "indefinitely." Figures are shown per month; the model simulates in annual terms.
| Horizon | 75% confidence /mo | 90% confidence /mo | 95% confidence /mo | Today's spending succeeds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | $16,726 | $14,635 | $13,938 | 99% |
| 25 | $14,983 | $13,590 | $12,544 | 96% |
| 30 | $14,287 | $12,544 | $11,847 | 92% |
| 50 (indefinite proxy) | $12,544 | $11,150 | $10,454 | 78% |
| Current net worth | $1.97M |
| Guaranteed income (net of tax caveat) | $79,992/yr |
| Current total spending (lifestyle only, tax excluded — see note above) | $150,274/yr |
| Expected real return / volatility | 5% / 12% |
| General inflation | 3.0%/yr |
| Lifestyle spending real growth | +0.0%/yr |
| Guaranteed income real growth | +0.0%/yr |
Not a CFP/CPA figure. Assumes the SAME 5%/12% real return/volatility as the Downsize Model page as a starting point — confirm against the portfolio's actual allocation when known, since the real portfolio may have a different risk posture than a hypothetical newly-invested pot. Guaranteed income is assumed fully COLA'd (flat in real terms); if either pension is known not to have COLA, set "Guaranteed income real growth" negative on the sheet to model its real value eroding over time. Proceeds-only downsizing and whole-portfolio sustainability are DIFFERENT questions — this page never assumes our house gets sold.